Ian Dunlop | Four-degree rise demands ninety-degree rethink

SMH News Review, 22 September 2012

As climate change shifts into “a new and dangerous phase,” CPD Fellow Dunlop reveals alarming new climate change projections, and marvels at continued inaction by the political, business and NGOs that might be expected to lead an urgent response.

… on current trends the Arctic will be ice-free in summer by 2015 and ice-free all year by 2030 – events that were not expected to occur for another 100 years… 

Australian leaders glibly talk about adapting to a 4-degree world with little idea of what it means – which is a world of 1 billion people rather than the present 7 billion.

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Blog Comments

The Permian mass extinction, which wiped out approximately 80% of all life on earth over a period of about 3 million years, involved an 8 degree temperture rise.  It’s complex and many of the details of ‘the great death’ are uncertain but if we experience a 4 degree rise over 250 years, with most of that happening in the closing 50 years then I think 1 billion people surviving is a gross over-estimate.

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