Who’s buying? The impact of global decarbonisation on Australia’s regions is a report from the Centre For Policy Development’s Sustainable Economy Program that models the impact of global decarbonisation commitments on employment and output at a Local Government Area (LGA) level in Australia.
Who’s buying represents an expanding area of focus for the Centre for Policy Development which is continued in the Making our way report.
The paper analyses the likely impacts of global decarbonisation commitments on Australia’s fossil fuel export industries, and maps those effects to jobs at a local government area level. It excludes effects of any change to domestic energy policy.
Who’s buying models the effect of a decarbonising global economy with shifting export markets onto employment and output at a Local Government Area level in Australia.
While the impact on Australian employment at a national level is modest, it is heavily concentrated in a small number of regions.
As the world pursues decarbonisation, demand for Australian exports will change. Conservative scenarios predict global demand for coal exports will halve by 2050, with others suggesting an even sharper decline.
While emerging industries in the renewable economy are likely to create a greater number of jobs than decarbonisation displaces, policymakers must ensure that people and communities most affected are best positioned to benefit.
Who’s buying uses input-output tables to model the effect of changing export demand on Australian employment and production at a local government area level in Australia.
It finds that:
Global decarbonisation is a predictable, manageable, long-term industrial transition.
As Australia’s main trading partners look toward a post-carbon economy, the time for policy makers to respond to this inevitable global trend is now.
The impacts on Australian employment are modestly sized but highly concentrated, with a far greater impact on some communities. Our response must be similarly concentrated.
Australian policymakers must ensure those affected by declining demand for legacy exports are best positioned to benefit from emerging industries.
Some opportunities like hydrogen, wind, solar and battery technologies are connected to global decarbonisation, and some will be separate, such as high value-added manufacturing, increased globalisation of service sectors, and biomedical sciences.
The Who’s buying report calls for “laser-focused” local jobs deals between industry, government, investors, workers’ representatives and community leaders to connect communities in the Bowen Basin, Hunter and Pilbara with new opportunities that will be created in diverse industries such as mining, services, manufacturing, wind, hydrogen and renewables.
These coalitions should ensure the geographic location of jobs in emerging industries, the skills profile of local workers, and the transition pathways for economies and communities are aligned so the people and places most impacted by changing exports can shift gears smoothly between now and 2050.
